# Kalshi Traders Bet Bitcoin's Rally Won't Go Much Higher Before Year End

> Prediction market Kalshi's year-end contracts put Bitcoin near $75,000 by the close of 2026, with traders pricing just a 5% chance it tops $100,000 before November, according to CNBC.

- Source: Money Standard
- Canonical URL: https://moneystandard.co.uk/article/kalshi-traders-bet-bitcoins-rally-wont-go-much-higher-in-2026
- Author: Money Standard Newsroom
- Section: Crypto
- Published: 2026-08-22T01:14:50.943Z
- Updated: 2026-08-22T01:14:50.943Z
- Tags: Bitcoin

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Bitcoin has been on a tear, but traders on the prediction market Kalshi are betting the rally is close to running out of room this year, according to CNBC. Contracts tied to where Bitcoin lands by the end of 2026 average out to a price near $75,000, a slight step down from levels the token was trading at recently, above $77,000.

The bulk of the probability on Kalshi's year end markets is clustered in the $55,000 to $70,000 range, a sign traders are treating the current price more as a ceiling than a springboard for further gains. That skepticism extends to the psychologically important $100,000 mark: Kalshi prices the odds of Bitcoin crossing that level before November 2026 at just 5 percent, rising only modestly to 13 percent by January 2027. Put another way, traders see an 87 percent chance Bitcoin is still trading below six figures when the new year begins.

Several forces are behind the caution. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which pulled in strong inflows through 2025, have since cooled, with that flow fatigue removing one of the steadier sources of buying pressure. Macro uncertainty around inflation and trade policy is also weighing on sentiment, and traders say there is no obvious catalyst on the horizon capable of driving a move of nearly 50 percent from current levels before the year is out.

The pullback in expectations does not mean traders think Bitcoin is due for a collapse, just that the easy momentum behind the recent run looks to be fading. With the bulk of contracts pricing in a range well short of new highs, Kalshi's markets suggest the crowd is bracing for a quieter close to the year than the rally so far might have suggested.

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Originally published by Money Standard. Free to cite with attribution and a link to https://moneystandard.co.uk/article/kalshi-traders-bet-bitcoins-rally-wont-go-much-higher-in-2026.