The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, billed as the bill that would finally bring crypto into the economic mainstream and cut the odds of another collapse like FTX, is running out of runway, according to Fortune. Prediction market Polymarket currently puts its odds of passing in 2026 at just 25 percent, a steep drop after months of negotiation aimed at winning over skeptics in Washington.
Much of the resistance is coming from the banking industry, and the fight traces back to a provision in the already passed Genius Act that lets third parties offer yield on stablecoins such as USDC. Banks argue that letting stablecoin holders earn a return could pull deposits out of the banking system and, in turn, crimp banks' ability to extend credit to groups like farmers and small businesses.
Fortune's report pushes back hard on that framing, noting that banks already pay most depositors little to nothing while charging as much as 20 percent on credit card balances, and that only about half of deposits get lent out in the first place. The piece argues there is no solid academic backing for the claim that yield bearing stablecoins would meaningfully drain deposits or starve small business lending.
The article points to money market funds as a precedent worth remembering. Banks fought hard against those products decades ago using similar arguments, only to be proven wrong: trillions of dollars eventually flowed into money market funds, yet bank deposits kept climbing anyway. The implication is that stablecoins are likely to follow the same trajectory, cycling back through the banking system rather than draining it.
With the banking lobby's opposition showing no signs of easing and Polymarket's odds reflecting real doubt on Capitol Hill, the Clarity Act's fate now hinges on whether lawmakers view the deposit competition argument as a genuine risk to the financial system or, as Fortune's report suggests, a defense of the status quo dressed up as prudence.